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Volume 13 Chapter 2 Part 2

Roxanne was the first one to pick the Floor Boss drop item up and bring it back to me. This is the fifteenth Mithril Thread that we managed to obtain. It seems she has a perfect grasp of the numbers we got so far, so there is no way to hide it from her to prolong the process of gathering them as much as possible. I guess this is what I have to deal with whenever I take Roxanne to the Labyrinths with me.

「I’m looking forward to it. 」

「Yes, me too.」

「Shall we move to a new labyrinth soon? 」

Is it the new Labyrinth you’re looking forward to, Roxanne? Aren’t you looking forward to the socks?

「No. It’s already been quite a while since we entered here, so we can go back home, have breakfast and go to the shop in the Imperial City first. 」

「Is that so? 」

「Oh, okay. 」 said Roxanne, sounding a bit dissatisfied. Well, she might be, but there’s nothing I can do about it now.

「Alright. So if we only have a little more time, would it be okay to move on from here and fight the Floor Boss on the forty-fifth floor? 」

Huh? Roxanne changed her mind? She doesn’t want to fight the Floor Boss of the forty-fourth floor anymore and wants us to move to the forty-fifth instead?

Is that an option for us right now? Or not? And please don’t make it sound like you’ve been forced to make some huge compromises because of me, because that’s not the case here at all. If anything, I’m the one who has to compromise while you’re being a bit of a pushover.

「No, no. We don’t have much time, so let’s continue here to the forty-fourth floor. 」

「But if we don’t have time, then why not go to the forty-fifth floor? 」

What kind of messed-up logic is that? That way there’s no sign of compromise! Now I really want to point out that I’m the one who’s compromising here, even though I also knew there was no longer any reason to fight a Floor Boss on the forty fourth floor.

However, there was one good thing that happened while we were holed up on the forty fourth floor: my Monk Job has reached Lv.50. And once that happened, I also gained a new Job: Shaman Lv.1. It seems that Shaman is the Advanced Job branching from the Monk Job. This means that I should be getting even stronger now.

The next one of my Jobs to reach Lv.50 and gain the Advanced Job will be either a Hero Job or a Priest Job, and I can’t wait to see what kind of Advanced Jobs they will offer me.

「Uhm…Right now, things are going well, and momentum is important, isn’t it? 」 Sherry tried to mediate between us, but… *Tsk!*, looks like she’s on Roxanne’s side in this one. Fortunately, there is a way to persuade her.

「That’s called the Gambler’s Fallacy. 」

「Gambler’s fallacy, you say? 」

It seems she doesn’t know what that is after all. And , well, there’s no way she could know it, so I can explain it to her now.

「When you flip a coin, the probability of getting heads is 50%, and the probability of getting tails is 50%. This doesn’t change under any circumstances. For example, even if you got heads the last time, or if you got heads three times in a row, or if you got heads ten times in a row, the probability of getting heads the next time you flip the coin is still 50%, and the probability of getting tails is still 50% as well. However, people often tend to think that because it was heads last time, they will probably get heads again, or that because they have gotten heads several times in a row, they will definitely get tails the next time. This is called the Gambler’s Fallacy. But even if you’ve gotten a lot of heads recently, it doesn’t increase the probability of getting heads the next time. 」

「Hmm. I see. But if you get heads ten times in a row, shouldn’t you revise your initial assumption that the probability of getting heads is 50%? 」

…Bayesian Inference? Really? I wanted to hit Sherry with sound reasoning so that she couldn’t refute my argument, but then she went and hit me back with sound reasoning of her own. This is just what Sherry is like.

I feel like my spiritual pressure has all but disappeared.

In fact, with physical coins, factors such as engravings and portraits can affect the probability of landing on heads or tails, which can be a bit biased.

「N-no. It’s just that people tend to make wrong decisions like that. The Gambler’s Fallacy can also be considered the same as the Hot Hand Fallacy. 」

「The Hot Hand Fallacy? What is that? 」

「It’s the fallacy that successful people are more likely to succeed again. To use an example, imagine what would happen if you gathered a lot of blacksmiths and had them fuse Skill Crystals, and then kept only the successful ones and had them fuse the Skill Crystals a second time, and then have only the successful ones do the same thing for the third time in a row… 」

「That’s wrong. Whether you succeed on the first try or not doesn’t change the probability of succeeding on the second fusion. 」 Sherry denies eagerly.

Right? Right?! See Sherry, this is what happens when you try to fight me with sound logic and common sense! Now it is your spiritual pressure that has completely disappeared!

It’s like having a .200 hitter who got a hit in his first at-bat because he seems to be in good form today, and then have him challenge a .300 hitter who ended up with a grounder in his first at-bat. A .200 hitter is a .200 hitter no matter if he hit in the previous at-bat, and even if he struck out in his last at-bat, a .300 hitter is still a .300 hitter.

By the way, past MLB records show that cases with no outs and a runner on first base produce better results than cases with one out and a runner on second base. The same is true for Japanese professional baseball statistics, and this is why sacrifice bunts should not be used for runners on first base with no outs. If a runner on first base with no outs becomes a runner on second base with one out, the expected score value decreases statistically. This is because past performance shows that runners on second base with one out have scored fewer points than runners on first base with no outs.

「I don’t really understand, but I think I see what you’re getting at. 」

「Umu. 」

Roxanne said that she understands too. This is the essence of sabermetrics. I won’t be making any sacrifice bunts, so we will wait to go to the forty-fifth floor.

「Both the bosses on the 44th and 45th floors are the same in that we can win against them without any problems. In other words, we’re going to have no problems with them. 」

It… it didn’t work? Uhm, Roxanne? Maybe listen to what the people around you are saying, okay? I really mean it, Roxanne.

「I see. If we can win against both of them without any problems, then the probability of us winning against both of them will always be 100%, and there’s no way there could be an error in that probability! 」

Sherry, you’re wrong.

「No, desu. 」

「I think we’re going to be fine. 」

Great. Thanks to that, those two were also drawn in. I don’t expect anything from Miria and Vesta though.

「We have no choice but to go there for the sake of the Lords’ Conference. 」

What are you talking about, Rutina? I don’t understand what she means, but it seems that even Rutina has joined them.

「Come on then, let’s go! 」

Positively shaking from the result, Roxanne quickly departed. Since I couldn’t persuade Sherry, it was only a matter of time before something like that happened, and with Roxanne in my Party, there was no such thing as not knowing where the Boss Room of the forty-fifth floor would be. She also thought that the Floor Boss of the forty-fifth floor would not pose any kind of challenge to us.

「From the 45th floor, there will be two Floor Bosses and two other monsters. 」 Sherry explained in the Waiting Room.

There’s only one boss on the eleventh floor, and in the Boss Rooms from the twelfth floor onwards, in addition to the Floor Boss, there’s also one monster that appears on that floor as an attendant monster.