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Chapter 67 – The 1928 Continental Situation (2)

Starting this year, due to the ever-increasing scale of the Ootori clan’s garden party, it was changed to a banquet held in the grand ballroom of the Ootori Hotel.
And as was the main topic at the Ootori garden party, Japan could no longer afford to simply watch from the sidelines.

With the possibility of the Yangtze River basin once again becoming a battlefield, Japan coordinated closely with the other major powers and proceeded to reinforce the foreign settlements with additional forces from the Naval Landing Brigade responsible for overseas security.

Then in June, developments began to unfold much like the history I knew from my previous life.
Perhaps this was history snapping back into place.

Of course, Zhang Zuolin didn’t get blown up on a train just like in my previous life’s history.

Instead, under orders from the Comintern—or more accurately, the Soviet leadership—the Communist Party incited riots in the major cities of central and southern China (Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, and even Hong Kong).
The Communist Party tried to use the chaos to seize power from the Kuomintang.

In response to the riots, a multinational force led by Japan, Britain, and the United States was deployed to various locations.
The U.S. and Britain, in particular, were furious, having suffered casualties and damage from the riots.

Britain deployed forces from Singapore, and the U.S. sent troops from the Philippines.

On top of that, the U.S., after coordinating with Japan, even dispatched a cruiser squadron carrying Marines from the West Coast.

However, before Japan could send additional troops alongside the U.S. and Britain, the Zhang Zuolin army—pursuing and firing on the retreating Kuomintang forces—managed to seize or occupy Nanjing and Shanghai as they advanced south.
They then immediately launched attacks on the Communist forces rampaging in Shanghai and Nanjing.

Up to this point, it was shaping up to be a complete victory for Zhang Zuolin.

Hearing that Zhang Xueliang was aggressively attacking the Communist Party felt, to me, like some kind of bad joke.

But then, in inland Wuhan, Chiang Kai-shek, who had quickly returned from the U.S., took command of the fragmented right-wing Kuomintang forces.
These troops launched attacks against the Zhang Zuolin army, the local Communist mobs, and the de facto left-wing Kuomintang government.

Meanwhile, Wang Jingwei’s left-wing Kuomintang faction (the pro-communist Canton government) fled to southern China, to Guangzhou.

The remnants of the thoroughly defeated Communist Party abandoned the cities and escaped to the rural interior.
There, they began using slick words and clever tactics to sway the outcast riffraff in various villages, and started creating “liberated zones” in the hinterlands by butchering local landlords across the regions.

It felt as if I were watching the history of my previous life unfold, just one year off.

Naturally, the First United Front between the Kuomintang and the Communists collapsed completely.
The Kuomintang itself split into left and right factions.

And then, as Zhang Zuolin—welcomed into Nanjing as Grand Marshal—arrived, he extended his right hand to Chiang Kai-shek.

Grand Marshal Zhang Zuolin probably believed he had all but secured the throne of a new emperor.

And then, riding high on his success, the Grand Marshal got carried away and did something reckless.

He ended up doing, through his son Zhang Xueliang, what the Kuomintang had done in my previous life’s history.

That was the de facto occupation of the Chinese Eastern Railway (a.k.a. the East Qing Railway), which the Soviet Union had owned in northern Manchuria since the Russian Empire days.
Zhang Xueliang, who was surprisingly good at military command, ended up effectively seizing control of much of the railway in northern Manchuria.

In short, this marked the outbreak of the “Sino-Soviet Conflict.”

It was a foolish move that terrified the Kwantung Army, who feared a military gap with the Soviets and scrambled to avoid getting caught in the crossfire.
But unexpectedly, the Soviet military response was sluggish.

This was because the Soviet Union, that same year, had just begun its First Five-Year Plan and was facing heavy internal backlash from independent farmers and others, forcing them to focus on domestic affairs.

However, the Grand Marshal, thoroughly misunderstanding the situation, continued his bold moves.
At least on the surface, Zhang Zuolin appeared to hold an overwhelming advantage.

From July 1st to 3rd of that year, Zhang Zuolin and Chiang Kai-shek held talks in Nanjing.

As a result of the talks, the Kuomintang’s Blue Sky, White Sun, and a Wholly Red Earth flag was abolished as the party’s flag.

In my previous life, there had been the “change of flags” (yi zhi) declaration, which saw the disappearance of the Five-Colored Flag—but now, something almost exactly the opposite had happened.

The Blue Sky, White Sun, and a Wholly Red Earth flag, established by Sun Yat-sen and adopted as the Kuomintang’s flag, was redefined during this meeting as solely “Sun Yat-sen’s flag,” and its use as a national, party, or organizational flag was banned by national law.
This incident signified that the Kuomintang, led by Chiang Kai-shek, had surrendered to Zhang Zuolin’s Beiyang Government.

More than that, the Beiyang Government was now officially established as the government of the Republic of China.

The transfer of the capital to Nanjing that I knew from my previous life never happened.
The capital remained in Beijing.

This wasn’t just a historical rebound—it was a complete reversal.
I found myself caught in a situation where I couldn’t help but want to ask, “What happened to the pendulum swing of history?”

“Is something troubling you, Reiko-ojousama?”

“Tokita, the Kuomintang’s flag is gone.”

“Indeed. But Sun Yat-sen is their founding father. Now that Zhang Zuolin has unified the continent, it does make some sense that only the Kuomintang shouldn’t be allowed to use it exclusively, does it not?”

“Well, yes, but… this outcome was completely unexpected.”

“Indeed, this wasn’t in your ‘dream,’ was it?”

“No. And what’s more, the exact opposite of what I saw in my dream is happening. I never imagined that toppling the Constitutional Government in Japan early would end up having this much impact…”

“…Do you regret it?”

He asked with a slightly lowered tone, a sign for me to calm down.
So I took a small, deep breath.

“No. If it had gone the other way, Zhang Zuolin would have already been assassinated by the Kwantung Army by now, and that would have triggered the start of the military’s recklessness in Japan. The Tanaka Cabinet would be in a terrible situation too. But all I really wanted was to prevent the Showa Financial Crisis. …In any case, I need to act while considering things from many different angles.”

“Is that really necessary?”

“Huh? But if things stray too far from the dream, then my dream will lose all its meaning.”

“Even so, only we know of that other possibility. That is an advantage beyond comparison with others. Besides—and I mean this with the utmost respect—personally, I sincerely wish that Reiko-ojousama might live a bit more peacefully, or at least grow up in good health until adulthood.”

With those words, he gave a deep, respectful bow.
“Forgive my impertinence,” he added.

So I slowly shake my head.

“I’d like that too, if possible. But I still need to push through just a little more. Well, putting that aside—what do you think will happen with the situation in China from here on? Have we heard anything from the branches over there?”

Having seen me dismiss my own well-being, Tokita frowned slightly for a moment, but quickly shifted his focus to my question.

“We’ve received reports from Shanghai about the ongoing confusion within the Kuomintang. Although Chiang Kai-shek has regained power through what was essentially a coup, it seems his influence and authority remain quite limited.”

“Well, Zhang Zuolin has overwhelming superiority in both military strength and territorial control. Still, I guess that means going forward, it’ll be Chiang Kai-shek under Zhang Zuolin, with Wang Jingwei and the Communist Party as their enemies.”

It makes no sense.
I instinctively crossed my arms and let out a thoughtful “Hmm.”

“Yes. I believe Zhang Zuolin will soon assume the position of Chairman of the Republic of China government. And it seems he will assign Chiang Kai-shek the task of suppressing Wang Jingwei and the Communist Party.”

“Hogging all the good parts for himself, huh? But if Chiang Kai-shek racks up achievements, won’t that become yabai for Zhang Zuolin?”

Tokita understands even when I say stuff like “yabai(dangerous).”
We’ve known each other long enough. 

The only others who get what “yabai” means like that are probably Edo-period thieves, Shizu, and Ofuyu-chan.

And then came Tokita’s reply, perfectly understanding what I meant by “yabai.”

“The support from Japan and the other major powers is flowing to Zhang Zuolin and amounts to an enormous sum. As long as that remains, his regime will be stable. Moreover, there’s a high likelihood that Chiang Kai-shek will either be used up and discarded or simply fail in his suppression campaign.”

“Well, if Zhang Zuolin doesn’t give him the money, that’s exactly what’ll happen. So, what are the Zhang government’s core policies for now?”

“Anti-communism and a good-neighbor diplomatic stance toward Japan, Britain, and the U.S.—there’s nothing else.”

“Well, he’s already picked a fight with the Soviet Union, and if he doesn’t maintain an anti-communist stance, all the major powers will cut off their support.”

“Yes, precisely. However, in turn, it’s certain that the Canton government and the Communist Party will intensify their resistance, so we expect the chaos to continue for a while yet.”

“If Zhang Xueliang loses to the Soviets next spring, they’ll definitely start moving right away. So make sure not to slack off on intelligence gathering.”

“Understood. Goinkyo-sama(former head) and our family head are of the same opinion.”

“Then no problem. Oh—can I have another cup of tea?”

“At once.”

It seems that the situation on the continent won’t pose any serious issues, at least within the year.
Knowing that is enough for now.

――――――――――――――――――

The Kwantung Army and the Soviet Far East Forces

The Kwantung Army was always weaker than the Soviet Far East Forces.
An “invincible Kwantung Army” never existed, not even once.

Up until the Manchurian Incident, the Kwantung Army was limited—per the treaty following the Russo-Japanese War—to no more than a single division plus a little extra, about 20,000 troops at most.

In contrast, during the 1920s, the Soviet military stationed at least 100,000 troops each in both the Far East region and the border area stretching from Lake Baikal to northwestern Manchuria. At its peak, that number reached 200,000 in each area.

Even adding the Korean Army to local Japanese forces, they still came up well short.
In other words, the Kwantung Army was outnumbered nearly ten to one.

Zhang Zuolin’s Faction

Nominally, it’s said to have 200,000 troops.
However, that figure includes soldiers’ families and others, so the number of actual male soldiers is, at most, about half.

“Yi Zhi” (Change of Flags)

This term refers to the event after the assassination of Zhang Zuolin, when the Beiyang Government surrendered to the Nationalist Government by changing its flag from the Five-Colored Flag to the Kuomintang’s Blue Sky, White Sun, and a Wholly Red Earth flag.

Later, the flag of Manchukuo would be designed using the Five-Colored Flag as a motif.
In this world, however, that never happened at all.

Capital City

In our history, the capital of the Republic of China was moved from Beijing to Nanjing in June 1928.
Since Beijing was no longer the capital, its name was changed to Beiping from 1928 to 1949.

In this world, however, it remains Beijing.